Latino Electorate On Track For Historic Turnout In 2016

*Five days ’till the election, and one of the big questions is “will Latinos turn out to vote?” So far, so good. VL

By Justin H. Gross, Ph.D., Huffington Post Latino Voices (6.5 minute read)

According to the latest data from our national tracking poll, Latino Decisions projects that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote in 2016. This estimate represents a three percent to five percent increase over the 2012 Latino turnout rate which, coupled with the dramatic growth of the age-eligible Latino population, will yield between 1.9 million and 3.5 million additional Latinos voters in 2016 compared to the 11.2 million who voted four years ago.

Latino Decisions also projects that 79 percent of Latinos will vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 18 percent for Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the remaining three percent voting for other candidates. Clinton’s projected share is higher than both Latino Decisions’ estimated 75 percent Latino vote share and 71 percent exit poll share Democrat Barack Obama received during his 2012 re-election bid.

Over the past seven weeks, the Latino Decisions weekly tracking poll has demonstrated heightened enthusiasm for voting in 2016 and record-high levels of support for Hillary Clinton. Each week, the released poll has captured a rolling cross-section of 500 bilingual interviews conducted nationwide with Latino registered voters and has found little fluctuation either with respect to likely turnout or the proportion of the Latino electorate anticipated to vote for each presidential candidate. From a statistical modeling perspective, this stability is good and suggests more confidence in our model estimates for Election Day.

Another record turnout for Latinos

As has been the case in recent elections, the increase in Latino turnout in 2016 will be driven largely by the rise in eligible voters and the success of registration efforts. Our own analysis is based on a probability sample of registered Latino voters, but the final numbers will depend on the degree to which registration efforts have succeeded in capitalizing on “Trump anxiety” in places such as Arizona, Florida, and Texas or whether—as some analysts have asserted—the Democratic Party may not have sufficiently taken advantage of a golden opportunity to mobilize eligible Latino voters.

Latinos have historically lagged behind other groups of eligible voters in their registration levels. Once registered, however, Latinos turn out to vote in high proportions, similar to non-Latinos. According to our LD Turnout Predict model, which we apply to survey response data in order to estimate likely turnout, we anticipate between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latino voters will cast votes in this election. LD Turnout Predict estimates the relationship between key predictors of turnout (such as voter history and each respondents’ own intention to vote) and the probability of casting a vote in a given contest according to previous surveys and validated votes. Using the same methodology in 2012, and examining official validated vote history in that year, our model estimated turnout about 3 percent to 5 percent lower than what we predict in 2016.

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According to Pew Hispanic, 4 million additional Latinos have become eligible to vote since 2012, with totals estimated to reach 27.3 million. If this is correct, we should see at least 13.1 million and as many as 14.7 million Latinos casting votes this year, up from an estimated 11.2 million in 2012. Among registered voters, Latino turnout will be at least as high as in 2012, according to our model estimates, and likely 3-5 percent higher. Depending on how successful various Latino voter registration efforts have been—and early indications from states like Florida are promising — it is possible that we may see numbers approaching 15 million Latino voters this election. Again, a lot depends on exactly how many Latinos are currently registered to vote for the November 2016 election. A simple linear projection would yield an estimate of about 16 million Latino registered voters this year, however this cycle has seen more Latino registration drives than ever before, leaving open the very real possibility of 17 million to 18 million Latino registered . . . READ MORE