Polls: Obama Leads, but Still Needs Latino Vote to Win

By Raisa Camargo, Voxxi

At the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Democratic confidence is rising on the prospect of Obama’s reelection with several supporters signaling that victory will be on the back of the Latino vote.

Two days before the election, Obama campaign supporters including Juan Sepulveda, DNC senior advisor for Hispanic Affairs, affirmed that early voter turnout among Latinos in the battleground states is higher than it was four years ago.

“We know we have a ways to go, but in the early numbers I think we’re seeing what we were hoping, which is an expansion of the electorate,” Sepulveda told VOXXI.

Latinos early voting in battleground states is up

Based on unofficial data collected Saturday by the Obama campaign, the number of Latinos early voting increased in Colorado (20 percent), Iowa (38 percent), North Carolina (14 percent), Nevada (27 percent) and Ohio (20 percent). Yet, overall early voting, including among Latinos, is down since 2008, the Obama for America (OFA) campaign reported.

The Democrats were quick to add that “more than two-thirds of those early voting are women, youth, African-Americans or Latinos—all groups that favor Obama.” Latino voter registrations are also up ranging in between 14 to 55 percentage points since four years ago they claim.

The analysis was conducted by Obama’s campaign based on statistics they pulled from the Secretary of State, County Boards of Election and DNC voter file. Mitt Romney’s campaign declined to comment and mentioned that they are not releasing any early voting figures.

Romney campaign spokesman Alberto Martinez further disputed these estimates during an interview with Andres Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald. He noted that there is still an enthusiasm gap among Latinos to vote for the president, despite early voting figures reported by the Obama campaign.

Martinez told Oppenheimer that virtually, “all polls show Obama suffering from an enthusiasm gap among Hispanics. And regardless of whether the number of Hispanic registered voters increased in recent years, that does not mean that all will vote for Obama.”

Emphasis shifts to ground game getting voters to turn out

Yet, the Democratic campaign reiterates that they are tracking the number of Latino supporters who are heading to the polls.

“You look at total Latino voter registration, you look at early voting that is taking place, absentee ballot requests, we’re literally identifying,” said Sepulveda. “We’ve spent the last year talking to folks in a specific neighborhood. These 85 percent folks are with us, so go get them to vote now.”

“We’re not just saying, ‘I wonder what’s going to happen.’ We’ve identified a supporter, he or she, has gone to vote early check them off—it’s real numbers than we can bank.”

On that note, they affirmed in these last days they’re making calls back and dispatching an estimated 300 surrogates across the country to make sure voters are heading to the polls.

Despite the scenario that it may or may not be a confidence game that both teams play throughout the election season, Democratic campaign staffers said they feel very optimistic Obama would win virtually all the battleground states with the exception being Florida and North Carolina as tossups.

That’s also based on projections they gather from New York Times Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog.

Likewise, the Romney campaign is building their momentum. They also indicate that they’ve upped their ground game. Republicans counter that Obama’s early lead with votes by claiming that he’s doing worse than he did four years ago. They refute claims that Obama is slighted for a sure win based solely on early voting figures.

In a statement released Saturday and reported by the Daily Caller – a political news publication – Romney’s campaign said they have a base of “high propensity” voters ready to hit the polls on Tuesday.

“There are a lot more likely GOP voters available to vote on Election Day and help us run up our margins,” according to the statement.

The Republicans also indicate there is higher enthusiasm among Republican voters and the Romney ground game will lead them to victory on Election Day.

Early voting numbers gives Obama a lead, but Florida is still a tossup

Yet, the president is leading among early voters. An AP analysis shows that Obama is slighted to have an early vote lead in key states such as Florida where Democrats are leading 43 percent versus Republicans 40 percent. The same holds true in Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. The only exception is Colorado where Republicans are outperforming Democrats in early voting.

On this note, Democrats are still wary of Florida. Reports are surfacing that there are four-hour wait times and long lines that stretch around the corners. Last week, polls showed Romney with a slim lead in that state.

The I-4 corridor, the bridge between Tampa and Orlando, has become battleground for both campaigns to target the rising population of Latinos and particularly Puerto Ricans. Sepulveda said he’s confident that the majority of Puerto Ricans will side with Obama.

“You’re going to have record turnout of the Puerto Rican community there,” said Sepulveda. “That’s what makes us competitive in Florida. It’s flat out the I-4 corridor.”

According to the OFA analysis, the number of Latino Republicans in the sunshine state has declined slightly from 5.2 percent of early voters in 2008 to 4.8 percent today. At the same time, the number of Florida Latino Democrats and independents who voted early shifted slightly to what it was four years ago. An estimated 7.9 percent voted early in 2008 compared to 8.0 percent today, according to OFA.

Confidence builds that Latino vote will get Obama reelected

As of Sunday, national polls showed a deadlock between Romney and Obama. The Wall Street Journal noted that it “looks set to be one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history.”

Sepulveda said they’re still pouring resources on the battleground states, but they’re not second guessing their victory in most of them including Ohio.

“We are going to be able to say when Tuesday hits, as the president said earlier about a week ago, he’s going to get reelected because of the Latino vote,” he said.

This article was first published in Voxxi.