North Carolina, Eye Of Latino Political Storm – Really?

By Victor Landa, NewsTaco

We’ve been beating this drum for a while now. We heard rumblings across the political landscape that North Carolina  was going to be important this election and that Latinos in that state were going to be pivotal. Really? we thought.

So we looked at the numbers:

• 9% of the NC population is Latino
• 2% of the voters are Latino
• The state has 15 electoral votes

Where’s the magic?

Well, the hocus-pocus is that North Carolina is an electoral swing state, and 2% can sway the 15 electoral votes, or so say the tea-leaf readers – among them the leadership of the Democratic National Committee who decided to have their National Convention there. They also decided to pick a Latino to deliver their keynote speech. San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro will have that honor and responsibility next month.

And looking forward, North Carolina mirrors the country. This from the News Record:

The number of voters will rise because of the youthfulness of the Hispanic population: median age, 24, compared to 37 for the population as a whole.

Nearly 90 percent of Hispanics under age 18 are U.S. citizens, according to the report.

Forty-four percent of Hispanic voters are registered Democrats, but 37 percent are unaffiliated — higher than the overall figure of about 25 percent.

And there’s more. All those numbers may fall short of reality. The News Observer reports that Latino voters may have been undercounted:

A new report estimates that North Carolina’s Latino vote is undercounted by roughly 25,000, with another 100,000 unregistered.

The report issued Wednesday by Democracy North Carolina and a group of Latino advocacy organizations analyzes electoral and census data to provide a picture of the growing voting bloc.

So, yeah, North Carolina; pivotal and, some believe, up-for-grabs. Again the News Observer:

Here’s what the report says about the Latino voters as a whole:

• The number of registered Latino voters in North Carolina is steadily increasing, which is not the case in some other states. It has climbed by 35 percent since October 2008, while the total number of registered voters in NC has increased by only 2 percent in that period.

• The Latino electorate in NC is young: 62% of registered Latino voters are ages 18-40, compared to 34 percent of registered white voters and 43 percent of registered black voters.

• Although a plurality (44 percent) of Hispanic voters in North Carolina are registered Democrats, Unaffiliated voters also make up a sizeable portion (37 percent), which suggests that neither party should take the growing Latino vote for granted.

So that’s why the drum beat. That’s why we’ve been looking at North Carolina as an important piece of this year’s electoral puzzle.  Texas, New York and California are spoken for, we know which way they’re going to vote. This election is going to be won in places like NC, and Latinos will be central to that race.