Looming Mexico Elections Reverberate Across U.S. Border

By Rosalba Ruiz, Voxxi

In two weeks, Mexico will elect a new president. And while the bout between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and their quest for the White House has dictated the U.S. news cycle, there are many here who are paying close attention to the election happening south of the border.

Los Angeles businessman Ramiro Romero, a naturalized U.S. citizen who was born in the Mexican town of Cherán, in the southwestern state of Michoacán, discusses the Mexico elections with clients, friends and relatives “just about every day,” he said.

“We have Mexico in our mind constantly… We are interested in what could be best for our country,” Romero told VOXXI.  “We talk about the candidates, about their proposals. We don’t even know who to support. It could be said that they’re all the same.”

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

In a way, Romero’s assessment of the candidates is correct, says Andrew Selee, director of The Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. — no matter which presidential hopeful Mexico elects, the collaboration with the United States won’t change much.

“It isn’t clear that there are major differences in how each candidate would approach U.S. relations,” Selee said.

None of the candidates has been very specific about policies to deal with major binational issues such as trade, manufacturing and border security.

The past two elections, many say, were more interesting in that respect.

The 2000 elections saw the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) fall from power after ruling Mexico for over 70 years. This implied major changes in the way the country was being run, at least in theory, which led to much speculation on both sides of the border. The center-right National Action Party (PAN) took over the presidency with their candidate Vicente Fox, but although he implemented significant changes — such as a transparency law similar to the U.S. Freedom of Information Act — he fell short of fitting the bill of a reformer, something that disappointed many.

This led to a tight race in 2006 between the conservative PAN and the left-leaning Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). Felipe Calderón of the PAN faced the PRD nominee Manuel López Obrador, a progressive former mayor of Mexico City. The PAN remained in power after Calderón won by only .58 percent of the popular vote, but now it appears the PRI is poised to make a comeback, as their candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, has been consistently leading in the polls.

With less than 20 days to campaign, polls show López Obrador of the PRD is in second place — though with a much narrower lead than a few months ago — and Josefina Vázquez Mota of the PAN is in third.

In the last 12 years under the PAN, Mexican voters have seen no major improvements in the educational system and no major economic reforms. The big changes they wanted when they voted the PRI out of power haven’t materialized. Although this is common in new democracies, says Andrew Selee, this has made a difference on voter preferences.

A NEIGHBOR WITH GREAT IMPACT

Although the Mexico election will not have a major, direct effect on the day-to-day lives of U.S. residents in the short term, it will definitely have an impact.

“It is our neighbor, we do share a border, we do have NAFTA,” said Carol Wise, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Southern California.

Mexico is the second major destination of U.S. exports and more than a billion dollars of goods are traded across the U.S.-Mexico border each day. This has implications not only in commerce, but also in security and environmental issues.

In addition, Mexico is the country of heritage of one in 10 Americans. Such is the case of Ramiro Romero, his wife and three U.S.-born grown children.

Romero is president of the Federation of Michoacán Clubs and Federations in North America, a Los Angeles-based organization with over 3,000 members who have roots in the Mexican state. The federation is a support network for expatriates that also funds community projects in Mexico.

“We are part of the economy here, but we don’t forget about Mexico,” said Romero, who owns an upholstery business in the city of Lynwood, California. “We are interested in stability returning to Mexico, in education for our youth, in generating jobs.”

Drug-related violence, which has claimed about 50,000 lives since Calderón declared war against organized crime, is a big issue for him. It was a deciding factor on who got his vote. He sent his absentee ballot last week.

Violence is also a big issue for Lilia Gutiérrez, a 52-year-old homemaker who heads the Club of Tamazula de Gordiano Natives in Los Angeles. Her mother and relatives still live in her hometown in the state of Jalisco, so she visits about twice a year.  She doesn’t like what she sees in the news about drug killings, and she doesn’t like the economic situation in Mexico, either.

USC’s Carol Wise explains that Mexico is not growing as quickly as it could. She argues that it needs to reform its tax system, labor market and energy sector, as well as implement antipoverty strategies in order to have a stable economy. This would have implications on future migration patterns.

But none of the candidates has provided any details about their plans to revamp the economy, either.

LOOKING FORWARD

Ahead of the elections, Lilia Gutiérrez has been keeping up with developments. She says she feels Mexicans don’t have much of a choice.

“You hear bad things about the PRI, I didn’t like how Obrador acted when he lost the last election, and Josefina seems too slow,” Gutiérrez told VOXXI. “I don’t even know who to vote for.”

However, she is voting. She says she thinks that all Mexicans should feel responsible for the direction the country takes and that all Americans have reasons to stay informed of what happens down there.

Juan Hernández, a Mexican-American political consultant, agrees.

“Mexico is a friend of the U.S., an ally of the U.S. The United States should be very interested in what happens with the Mexican elections,” said Hernández, who has advised Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón in Mexico, as well as George W. Bush and John McCain on how to get the U.S. Latino vote.

“The lives of U.S. citizens are affected by the country’s relationship with Mexico: the products we consume here, the products they buy in Mexico, the wonderful migrants who come to do the jobs we don’t want to do,” Hernández told VOXXI. “We should worry about our southern friends, about their accomplishments and their progress toward democracy.”

Nearly 80 million are registered to vote in the Mexican elections, according to the Federal Electoral Institute. About 45,500 of those are Mexicans in the U.S.

Some of those voters will also be deciding on a candidate on this side of the border come November.

“In both the U.S. and Mexico, we are in a great democracy party,” said Hernández. “We should celebrate it. We must participate.”

This article first appeared in Voxxi.

Rosalba Ruíz is a bilingual multimedia journalist who’s worked for various local, national and international outlets, including The Orange County Register, Excélsior del Condado de Orange and Voice of America. Rosalba currently produces video for Reuters Latin America and writes for various publications, including AOL Latino, Ahora Utah and Hispanic Link News Service. She is a bilingual multimedia journalist with over 10 years of media experience.