The GOP Latino Primary Path: Downhill From Here

If there is a tendency for Latino voters to favor the Republican party, small as the tendency may be, we’ve heard it loudly in the Florida primary. From here on out you may have to quiet the room to hear what Latino Republicans are saying. Not that their voice doesn’t matter, or that it’s not important, it’s just that in the Republican presidential primary universe the pool of GOP Latinos dwindles outside of Florida.

Four things matter for Latinos in the presidential primaries going forward:

• The percentage of adult Latinos in the state
• The percentage of Latinos who voted Republican in the past presidential election
• Whether the state holds elections or caucuses (caucuses require a more committed participant, willing to invest more time in the process)
• Whether the primary is open or closed (closed primaries limit the participants to registered party members)

With those things in mind you can carve out the Southwestern states as the most important for the Latino vote. So the next Latino test for the GOP presidential joust is February 4, in Nevada, followed by Colorado on February 7, Arizona on February 28, California and New Mexico on June 5, and the Texas primary date is still in flux. With those dates in mind, lets take a quick look at how the Latino vote pans-out for the GOP race. The numbers were compiled from Pewhispanic.org, Quickfacts.census.gov, and Fairvote.org:

So this isn’t Florida, and the rules of campaign engagement and issues that matter are not the same. Immigration was a big deal in Florida because most Latinos in that state are not directly affected by it and the issue goes a long way toward stirring the GOP party faithful.  According to a Pew Hispanic Center report the top issues among Latinos in places other than Florida are education (58%), jobs (54%), health care (51%), the deficit (35%) and finally immigration (31%). So the GOP spiel that worked among Latinos in Florida is not going to work everywhere else among Latino voters in general. Even among Latino GOP voters the important issues are not the same; the tired immigration drumbeat will sound hollow.

There are, of course, Latino voters in states across the union, and their vote will make a difference to the final balance come primary time. In some of the Super Tuesday states, Ohio principally, Latinos may even hold the final tally in the balance. But in pure wholesale vote strength the path moving forward for the GOP is clear. And it starts on February 4.

We’ll be keeping an eye on it, as always.