Are Latinos Gloomy About Obama?

According to at least one interpretation of at least one poll, Latinos aren’t exactly giddy about President Obama in 2012. The interpretation comes from a pollster named Joshua Ulibarri, from Lake Research Partners, a Democratic research firm. According to Politico.com Ulibarri wrote in a memo about Obama and his poll numbers among Latinos:

“current numbers among Latinos are not what they need to be if they are to be a base vote protecting against a surging Republican vote among working class and senior White voters.”

Not the best endorsement a year from the election.  As hard working and optimistic as Latinos are, this economy is wearing everybody down, and Latinos across the country are feeling the pinch as they struggle. The poll surveyed 600 Latino voters in 25 states with “high density Latino populations,” and according to Politico;

only 43 percent of Latinos said Obama’s job performance was good (25 percent) or excellent (18 percent). A majority rated his performance fair (33 percent) or poor (22 percent).

I don’t know if those numbers are really that dismal, overall. Consider: there is a 11%  unemployment rate among Latinos, yet 43% of polled Latino voters think President Obama is doing good or excellent. The problem for Obama in that poll is that even a 43% good to excellent rating among Latinos may not be enough. For the president’s re-election purposes “working class and senior White voters” are angrier at Obama’s general performance than any Latino approval can overcome.

But, Latinos live and vote in swing states; states with important weight in electoral college accounting; states where their vote has a greater impact on the outcome of next November’s election.

I think the real problem for Obama is to mistakenly think he has the Latino vote wrapped and tucked in his coat pocket.  A year is a long time in electoral politics and many things could happen to shrink his Latino approval. If anything, his opponents’ own actions may working in his favor. This has been an unpredictable, unstable Republican nomination process, and the candidates have given thee Obama campaign enough fodder for the moths to come.  Obama said as much in a round table discussion with Latino media, according to hispanicohio.com:

We may just run clips of the Republican debates verbatim. We won’t even comment on them, we’ll just run those in a loop on Univision and Telemundo, and people can make up their own minds.”

I think it’s too early to start speculating about Latinos’ gloominess and whether those who approve of the President’s performance will still do so come next November.  But he poll, and the many others like it that are sure to come, serve as a good base to gauge the White House’s attitude towards Latino voters. A 43% good to excellent rating with 11% unemployment is good enough to squander.