Latino Immigration Informs U.S., Canadian Growth
Total fertility rate (births per woman) for all the four nations examined here will continue to drop between 2011 and 2050. Mexico’s fertility rate has been dropping from its high point reached in the 1960s (topping at 6.8 births per woman in 1970) and this trend is projected to continue through 2050. Mexico’s fertility rate of 3.0 in 1995 had dropped to 2.3 by 2011 and is projected to reach 2.0 by 2050. At the other end of this trend is that of life expectancy and Mexico’s is projected to increase from 76 years of age in 2011 to 82 years of age in 2050.
The trends with respect to the rate of fertility and life expectancy in Brazil are similar to Mexico’s in terms of the general direction in which they’re expected to head during the period. In 1995, Brazil’s fertility rate was 2.5 and by 2011 this figure had dropped to 2.2. By 2050, Brazil’s fertility rate will continue to diminish thus slowing down the nation’s overall rate of population growth. The fertility rate for Brazil in 2050 is projected to be 1.8. But Brazilians will be living longer than their immediate predecessors did on average. In 1995, the life expectancy for Brazil was 68 years of age, and this key demographic indicator stood at 73 by 2011. By 2050, the average Brazilian’s life expectancy is projected to be 80 years of age.
By comparison to Brazil and Mexico, Canada’s fertility rate has been below the societal replacement level of 2.2 since at least 1995. Thus Canadians in 1995 had a total fertility rate of 1.7, which registered at 1.6 in 2011, and by 2050 is expected to maintain at 1.7. Canada’s stable though low total fertility rate justifies the need for relatively generous policies encouraging continued migration by would-be immigrants if Canada is to see its population and economy continue to grow. And as with the cases of Mexico and Brazil, Canada’s life expectancy is projected to continue to grow during the period. In fact, in 1995 the rate of life expectancy in Canada was 78, increased to 81 in 2011, and is projected to continue to grow to 84 by 2050. Like their hemispheric neighbors to the south, Canadians are expected to live longer lives as the 21st century unfolds.
Generally living longer and having a lower rate of fertility characterizes the three most populous nations in the Western Hemisphere during the first half of the 21st century. The same is true of Canada. In the US, according to the International Data Set, the total fertility rate will remain relatively stable across the period: in 2011, the fertility rate stood at 2.1, while by 2050 the rate is projected to drop slightly to 2.0, matching as it were that of Mexico’s at that point in time, while being higher than either Canada’s or Brazil’s. Life expectancy in the US is projected to increase by 2050. In 2011, the life expectancy in the United States was 78 years of age, whereas by 2050 it is projected to be 83 years of age. This is a rate similar to those of the three nations we have compared the US to per these measures. By 2050 all four societies will have many more octogenarians in their population, and an expanded elderly population is projected in this set of countries.
Canada will have a greater percentage of its population (proportionately) derived from immigrants by 2050 than any of the four countries in question but the US will clearly have the larger absolute number of immigrants. Similarly, of the four countries Mexico will continue to host the most significant outmigration of its population. It goes without saying that Mexico will be exporting its greatest resource, its people, al norte to the US.
Based on these actual and projected trends we can affirm that Mexican migration to the US through 2050 will continue to provide one of the major sources of immigrants (and therefore labor) in US society. This continued historic Mexican migration northward primarily to the United States, though reduced relative to historical highs achieved in the immediately preceding period, will surely provide extensive research material that will keep historians and related scholars of the Chican@, Mexican@, and Latin@ experience in the US busy for decades to come as they study, analyze and write about these events and peoples. Failing this continued development of intellectual cadre whose development accelerated in the era since the 1960s, this ethnic community stands to forfeit incorporating their epic saga into the larger changing and emerging American narrative of the 21st century. A commitment to social justice and equality for all is an essential ethos in this collective exercise.
These numbers indicate that the continued population dispersion of Mexican and Latin@ peoples across the US will remain a key element of the study of these Americano peoples. Chican@s and Latin@s will continue to forge ahead into the future and migrate, populate, settle, and pioneer their way into the histories of every major region in the nation including the South, Southeast, Northeast, Midwest, Northwest, West and not least the Southwest. By 2042 nearly one-third of the US population will be Latin@. The brief analysis provided here of the most populous nations in the Western Hemisphere and in North America verify as much. The mighty empire that Europe planted in what became the United States in North America and the Western Hemisphere is itself in the very throes of a major ethnic, cultural, social, political and economic transformation. US Mexicans and Latinos constitute, demographically, the major engine driving this unprecedented era of change.
The hatred and politics opposing these historical trends and peoples will be met head on by the social movements born in and spearheaded by these new and charter communities as they stake their lives to achieving full rights in American society. All allies regardless of who they are will always be welcomed in helping to achieve this strategic endeavor. As these voices rise and spread across the nation, a new alliance for human and civil rights for all is being forged. And as the struggle continues newer and older histories merge. As this occurs we can begin to write another one in common far more inclusive than the one before. This is history we can all share and understand together. It is a history that includes us, it is a history where we can see and imagine ourselves in varied and complex ways. We’re living in a season of intense and rapid change, and it is us. We embody global demographic change. Somos el cambio.
Professor Roberto R. Calderón, Ph.D. from the Department of History at the University of North Texas in Denton, Texas.
[Photo By Eric Fischer]