Where Energy, Global Warming and Immigration Meet

Is it possible to pull a warning out of a conundrum?

We’ll soon see. Scientists tell us that Mexico is due for a debilitating drought because of global warning. I’m sure that our home-grown science nay-sayers are chuckling at that.

The same scientists tell us that the impending Mexican drought will affect that country’s agricultural production and economists are quick to connect the dots. Global warming will produce a drought in Mexico that will spoil crops and send hundreds of thousands of Mexican Ag workers scurrying to the US.

If you’re an anti-immigrant global warming skeptic, how do you reconcile these facts? How do you raise a stink over the impending increase of immigrants if you denounce the very thing that will cause the immigrants to come?

I’m anxious to hear the spin.

Here’s how the Boston Globe put it:

“Sophisticated scientific models suggest that Mexico is expected to be hit hard by climate change. Drought and shifts in land use and agriculture are likely to take place. And, as climate change diminishes crop yields and places ever more pressure on limited resources, the rate of immigration to the United States will only increase. A recent paper published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences predicts that the factors related to climate change will lead to millions of new immigrants from Mexico over the coming decades.”

But that’s not all. To make matters worse many observers are preparing to toll the bell for Mexico’s state owned oil behemoth Pemex. Here’s what’s happened, if you’re keeping score: Pemex’s infrastructure is aging, it’s production is declining because its fields are mature, and the capital needed to modernize and increase production is not to be found; foreign investment in Pemex is limited by the Mexican Constitution. So, revenues to the Mexican federal government will surely decline, services will be cut, and unemployment will rise. “The result,” according to the Boston Globe,  “is a dangerous situation that will likely exacerbate northward migration beyond Mexico’s borders. Unfortunately, this issue isn’t addressed during immigration discussions.”

Can you imagine an immigration debate that takes into account global warming and the Mexican oil monopoly?

Veremos, dijo el ciego, how this thing turns out.