The Latino Vote in 2010: Solve for O

So now that the dust has settled a bit we begin the navel gazing.

How did Latinos vote?

Did they vote?

Where?

How many?

For whom?

Is it possible to answer all these questions at once?

The Washington Post tried their hand at it. You need to go past the sixth graph, to the subhead: Democrats may owe thanks to Hispanic voters, to read their small analysis of the effect of the Latino vote. It iterates what we’ve been thinking, that Latino voters kept the US Senate in Democratic hands. But the flip side may be the sleeper hit: what happens when Latinos stay home on election day? Latino participation in this past election was smaller than in 2008, a presidential year,  but about the same as the past mid-term. If the motivations two years ago were immigration and Obama, and if this year the immigration motivation was still there…it’s very basic political algebra. Solve for O.

What everyone seems to agree on is that Latinos were motivated in large part by the divisive immigration issue.  In the races where Latinos tipped the balance it was because they voted against harsh immigration stance candidates; for instance those in favor of laws such as AZsb1070. Most of the candidates that benefited from the Latino vote were Democrats. But in states where republicans fielded Latino candidates the story was different. Republican Susana Martinez will be the Governor of New Mexico. And Republican Marco Rubio is the Governor elect of Florida.

Of course there’s nuance and we’ll have to see what happens in the next two elections, at least, to call it a blip or a trend.