Obama’s Political Calculus on Immigration
Just a week before announcing the launch of his reelection campaign President Barack Obama sent a message to selected Immigration activists in congress: cool it.
The purposely quiet campaign launch made big noise across the country. Obama’s campaign sent an email, en masse, to the millions of people on the campaign mailing list along with a two minute video designed to rouse the partisans.
But just a few days before the launch, members of the Obama administration called several Democratic lawmakers to ask them to tone-down their immigration rhetoric. Specifically, they reached out to several non-Latino congresspersons and asked that they, according to a Bloomberg report, “back away from a campaign led by Hispanic Democrats to block deportations involving U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants…”
The press conference was scheduled for March 31st. Some Latino lawmakers believe that “Until U.S. immigration law is overhauled…Obama should use his executive power to protect families facing deportation or separation because at least one parent is an illegal immigrant.”
There are, as of 2008, 4 million US children with at least one parent who is not a US citizen.
Representative Mike Honda of California, a former chairman of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, referring to the White House legislative affairs office. “They would have loved us not to have gone to the press conference.”
Honda, a Japanese-American, attended with other officials, including Asian and black lawmakers, even after getting a call, because it’s “not only about Hispanics,” he said. “I want to broaden that so people don’t think just brown.”
At least three Democrats — Representatives Honda, Judy Chu of California and Keith Ellison ofMinnesota — said they were contacted about the event. Representatives Yvette Clarke of New York and Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas, who, like Ellison, are members of the Congressional Black Caucus, were scheduled to attend and didn’t, according to their offices. Neither Clarke nor Lee could be reached for comment.
I understand what the President wants, or better said what he doesn’t want. He doesn’t want anyone stirring the water when he’s trying to get reelected. So if only Latino politicians attend an immigration press conference the issue can be segmented, and be politically safe – such is the reelection campaign nuance. But it’s much like trying to use a spoon to stir a waterfall.
Obama has already said that he doesn’t have the authority to exempt certain people from federal laws.
“With respect to the notion that I can just suspend deportations through executive order, that’s just not the case,” Obama said at a March 28 town hall sponsored by the Univision television network. “There are laws on the books that Congress has passed.”
Here’s the balance for Obama: He’s launched an enthusiasm generating campaign, aimed directly at his supporters, many of whom are Latino. So he can’t come across as looking lax on immigration, which is what the press conference had the potential to do. And yet, if his staffers make calls to congresspersons asking them to pass up the event and “water-down” the press conference, he comes across as trying to quiet immigration supporters – and that could come back to bite his campaign.
This is what’s at stake:
A February survey by Latino Decisions, a research center focusing on Hispanic voting patterns, showed that 52 percent of registered Latino voters thought Democrats were doing a “good job” of reaching out to Hispanics, compared with 18 percent for Republicans.
Follow Victor Landa on Twitter: @vlanda
