Citizenship And Latino Voting Eligibility
[Editor’s Note: The following is a re-post written by Angelo Falcón with the National Institute for Latino Policy.]
After factoring in voting age and citizenship status, in 2009 only 41 percent of the Latino population in the United States was eligible to vote in federal elections, compared to 74 percent of non-Latinos. This is one of the major findings of statistics released last Friday by the Census Bureau at the request of the Justice Department, based in the estimates from the 2005-9 American Community Survey (ACS). To download these C-VAP data from the Census Bureau web site, click here.
These figures on the citizen voting age population (C-VAP for short) will be a factor to be considered in political redistricting discussions throughout the country. They represent a new element in the redistricting process because this is the first time that citizenship information has been released prior to the release of the decennial Census redistricting data. Because the use of citizenship status is an unsettled redistricting and voting rights issue with the courts, it is anticipated that the use of the ACS data for this purpose may be subject to legal challenges.
The percentages of the voting age population that were U.S. citizens was lowest among Latinos (62 percent) than the other major racial-ethnic groups. This compares to 96 percent for non-Latinos, ranging from a low of 66 percent for Asians, 84 percent for Pacific Islanders, 95 percent for Blacks, 98 percent for Whites and 99 percent for American Indians.
After taking age and citizenship into account based on the findings of the 2005-9 ACS, compared to the 41 percent of Latinos who remained eligible to vote, 74 percent of non-Latinos were. This does not take into account other factors like socioeconomic status, language barriers, incarceration rates, language barriers and others that disproportionately depress Latino voter participation rates. The citizenship variable also does not reflect future naturalization rates or the likely higher undercount rate of non-citizens.
The impact of citizenship and age on the eligibility of voters varied widely between the major racial-ethnic groups. While 77 percent of Whites and 68 percent of Blacks remained eligible voters after taking into account these two factors, only 41 percent of Latinos, 51 percent of Asians, and 62 percent of Pacific Islanders remained eligible voters.
The impact of these factors on Latino representation in the electorate is considerable. Although making up an estimated 15 percent of the U.S. population in 2009, the Latino share of the voting age population drops to 13 percent of the total population that is 18 years and older. When citizenship status is introduced, the Latino share of eligible voters drops much further to only 9 percent.
When looking at the effect of age and citizenship status on Latino voter eligibility, there is also much variation between the states and territories. The states with the lowest Latino voter eligibility were Georgia and North Carolina (where only 35 percent were eligible), South Carolina (40 percent), Arkansas (45 percent), Maryland and the District of Columbia (47 percent each), and Oregon (48 percent). Those with the highest rate of Latino voter eligibility were Puerto Rico (97 percent), Montana (94 percent), Hawaii (93 percent) and Alaska (83 percent).
The same is the case with cities and other places. Among the 25 places with the largest Latino populations, Latino voter eligibility ranged from 39 to 96 percent. Among these 25 places, those with the lowest Latino eligibility rates were Santa Ana, CA (39 percent) and Dallas, TX (41 percent). Those with the highest Latino eligibility rates were: Bayamon, Puerto Rico (97 percent), San Juan, Puerto Rico (90 percent), San Antonio, TX (84 percent) and Albuquerque, NM (84 percent).
The statistics discussed above are from the Census Bureau’s Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) Special Tabulation From the 2005-2009 5-Year American Community Survey. This is a special tabulation of data providing data on the citizen voting age population and other data from the 2005-2009 5-year American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS is the replacement for the decennial census long form. The data are available at the following levels of geography: National (summary level 010), States (summary level 040), Counties (summary level 050), Places (summary level 160), MCD (Minor Civil Division, summary level 060, for the 12 strong MCD states: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT, MI, WI, NJ, NY, MN, and PA), Census Tracts (summary level 140; note that these are Census 2000 tracts, not 2010 Census tracts), and Block Groups (summary level 150; note that these are Census 2000 block groups, not 2010 Census block groups).
The American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing survey that provides data every year – giving communities the current information they need to plan investments and services. Information from the survey generates data that help determine how more than $400 billion in federal and state funds are distributed each year. To help communities, state governments, and federal programs, the ACS asks about a variety of topics, including age, race, ethnicity, and citizenship.
The data from the American Community Survey should not be confused with the population counts of the 2010 Census. The ACS figures are based on a sample and are the average of 5 years of monthly surveys, the latest available being for 2009. The ACS is also designed to provide information on the characteristics of the population and not population count estimates. As a sample survey, the margins of error (MOE) increase the lower one goes in geography and should be interpreted with caution the more local the statistics.
In the analysis above we do not report the margins of error to simplify the presentation of the data. However, these MOEs are provided on the Census Bureau web site containing the data. With the inception of the ACS, the Census Bureau has attempted to improve its method for explaining the quality of the data by wrapping a margin of error corresponding to a 90 percent confidence interval around each estimate. Because this tabulation uses the ACS as its’ source, each estimate will have the 90 percent margin of error associated with the data item. For example the CVAP table, CVAP_EST, has an associated MOE identified as CVAP_MOE providing the 90 percent margin of error for the total number of United States citizens 18 years of age or older for that geographic area and group.
Also note that because this is a special tabulation of data and not part of the standard data products shown on the Bureau’s American Factfinder web site, these estimates are rounded. Therefore, the detail may not exactly add to the total. For example, the sum of each of the race groups for non-Hispanics may not be the same as the estimate given for non-Hispanics.
These estimates will not match counts from the 2010 Census. The ACS data were collected for and represent the five-year period from 2005 to 2009, and the Census data represent April 1, 2010. Totals in the ACS were adjusted based on data from the Bureau’s Population Estimates program, which was based on Census 2000 adjusted for population changes through the decade. The political geography for the ACS data in this tabulation is based on borders as of January 1, 2009, and the Census is based on boundaries as of January 1, 2010. The tracts and block groups are from Census 2000, except for 26 counties, and the 2010 Census data uses 2010 Census tracts and block groups.
